It’s that time of year again with the Oscars right around the corner. This year’s top categories like best picture, director, actor, and actress are anyone’s guess as the drama of award season reaches a fever pitch.
Brady Corbet’s gripping postwar drama “The Brutalist,” about a modern Hungarian architect in the U.S., seemed like a sure bet for the top prize not too long ago. But suddenly, two other films have swooped in and snatched its spotlight at other award shows, making its chances look pretty dim. Earlier this month, “Anora,” which tells the story of a sex worker in Brooklyn who falls for the son of a Russian billionaire, scored big by winning three out of four major guild awards decided by writers, directors, and producers.
That’s a big deal. Historically, there’s only been one film that won those three major awards and still lost the Oscar: “Brokeback Mountain” back in 2006, which famously lost to “Crash.” Interestingly, “Crash” had won a crucial ensemble award at the Screen Actors Guild (SAG) awards before that.
Last weekend at the SAGs, the big winner was “Conclave,” a papal thriller directed by Edward Berger based on Robert Harris’s novel, which surprisingly took home best picture at the Baftas just a couple of weeks ago.
Even though “Anora” seems to have the edge, experts can’t decide between the top three films. Each has its fans and critics. “Conclave” might not have the same level of love as the others, but it’s definitely respected. A lot of folks might put it as their second choice, which could help it with the Academy’s voting process.
If “Conclave” ends up snagging the Best Picture Oscar this Sunday, it would echo the success of that classic British film, “Shakespeare in Love,” which triumphed over “Saving Private Ryan” after winning at both the Baftas and SAGs.
Some believe there might be an unexpected win for the underdog: the Bob Dylan biopic “A Complete Unknown.” This film has a broad appeal, especially with Timothée Chalamet winning for best actor at the SAGs last Sunday.
Adrien Brody, the lead in “The Brutalist,” was in the running for every award until things took that surprising turn. Meanwhile, “Conclave’s” Ralph Fiennes is now being talked about as a potential last-minute favorite.
Recent leaks of anonymous Oscar ballots showed that some voters mistakenly thought Ralph Fiennes had already won an Oscar in 1994 for “Schindler’s List,” where he actually got nominated but didn’t win. So if he takes home the Oscar for “Conclave,” it’d be a long-awaited first win after 30 years; he did grab the BAFTA for supporting actor for the same film.
While it’s a bit worrying that some voters aren’t familiar with their own history, it could be a good sign for Fiennes if they start to connect the dots.
This has opened the door for Demi Moore, 62, who’s had a nearly 45-year career without much awards recognition, even though she’s a box office draw. Her win at the Golden Globes in January adds to a comeback story that Hollywood loves just as much as the push for inclusivity.
However, Mikey Madison, the 25-year-old actress in “Anora,” has already snagged the Best Actress awards at the Baftas and the Independent Spirit Awards, putting a dent in Moore’s chances.
Last year’s Oscars felt pretty predictable, following the usual pattern—”Oppenheimer” taking home the big awards, and winners like Emma Stone from “Poor Things” and Da’Vine Joy Randolph from “The Holdovers.” But this year’s road to the 97th Academy Awards has been full of surprises.
Before the Emilia Pérez social media drama, Jacques Audiard’s film was leading with 13 nominations, more than any other entry this year. But it’s been called “offensive” by both Mexicans and the trans community it portrays.
Both that movie and “The Brutalist” faced backlash for using AI in voice cloning for its actors. Gascón is featured in some musical parts while they’re working on enhancing Brody’s Hungarian accent. This week, Netflix changed direction and decided to support Gascón, so she’ll be at the Oscars, and how she behaves with her co-stars will be closely watched.
The wildfires in Los Angeles even delayed the announcement of Oscar nominations and caused the cancellation of several notable Academy events.
Meanwhile, the ceremony planners are rushing around after the passing of Gene Hackman, one of the most respected Oscar winners. They’re also keeping an eye on Pope Francis’s health to gauge which of host Conan O’Brien’s jokes about the Conclave, where a new pope is elected after the last one passes, might be risky.
If you’re looking for some sure bets on Sunday night, the supporting actor categories seem pretty safe. Even with the bumps in Emilia Pérez’s journey, Zoe Saldaña looks poised to grab best supporting actress. Last week, Guy Pearce, who is nominated for “The Brutalist,” mentioned that the actor likely leading the category still has the momentum to take it home.